DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/09 10:50

DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/09 10:50

   Grain Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents higher and 
wheat is 1 to 9 cents higher.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 470 
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are 
mostly higher. Energies are weaker with crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is 
firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $13.

   Corn:

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with support from heat in the 
forecast after rains moved through much of the Western Corn Belt last night. 
The forecast has more heat the second week with projected rain coverage into 
late July very mixed. Ethanol margins have narrowed a bit but remain positive. 
Weekly export sales were OK at 599,200 metric tons (mt) of old crop and 409,300 
mt of new crop. On the September contract, support is the 20-day moving average 
at $3.35 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.54.

   Soybeans:

   Soybean futures are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade working to push 
through recent highs with support from weather. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher 
and oil is 10 to 20 lower. The real remains at the midpoint of the recent range 
vs. the dollar. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days. Drier 
weather into midmonth for many will add support but concerns are more limited 
for now. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 952,200 mt of old crop and 
382,100 mt of new crop, with meal at 124,400 mt of old crop and 73,500 mt of 
new; oil at 28,900 mt. August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high 
with support the 20-day moving average at $8.77.

   Wheat:

   Wheat futures are 1 to 9 cents higher at midday with harvest pressure fading 
more along with the crop estimates for Europe and Russia trending lower, which 
sparked the sharp rally Wednesday. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. 
the dollar with Russia winning export tenders so far this week as the U.S. 
rally was more pronounced than MATIF milling wheat rallied. KC is at a 65-cent 
discount to Chicago with spreads sharply wider the last two days; Minneapolis 
is back to a 2-cent discount. Export sales were softer at 326,100 mt of the 
current crop year and -75,000 for the new-crop year. September KC chart support 
is the 20-day moving average at $4.43, which we closed above Thursday with the 
upper Bollinger band at $4.62 the next round up, which we have tested this 
morning.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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