DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/28 12:13

DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/28 12:13

   Live Cattle Contracts Support Mild Gains

   It's encouraging to see Monday's support in the live cattle complex even if 
the rally is minute given the bearish Cattle on Feed Report that was posted 
Friday afternoon.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   General Comments

   Nearby cattle contracts are drawing some attention and trading mildly higher 
into Monday afternoon. For the most part, the day's trade is slow to develop 
and unless substantial trader interest develops throughout the afternoon, the 
day will most likely close in the same lackadaisical manner. The lean hog 
complex is dancing on both sides of steady undecided if the market's excitement 
over potential exports will keep fueling the market or not. December live 
cattle are up $0.33 at $111.725, November feeder cattle are up $0.25 at $140.4, 
December lean hogs are down $0.55 at $63.875, December corn is up 4 1/4 cents 
per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is up 468.98 points and NASDAQ is up 112.58 points.


   Though live cattle contracts are rallying modestly, it's still a win for the 
market following Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed Report. October live cattle 
are up $0.25 at $107.82, December live cattle are up $0.10 at $111.50 and 
February live cattle are up $0.17 at $114.77. Following last week's sizable 
cash cattle trade, feeders will be motivated to price cattle higher again this 
week after two weeks of stronger cash cattle trade. Asking prices won't develop 
until later in the week but new showlists appear to be larger in 
Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat smaller in Texas, and lower in Kansas.

   Last week's negotiated purchases totaled 124,791 head. Of that 91,672 head 
are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 33,119 
head are for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.67 ($217.67) and select down 
$0.58 ($206.40) with a movement of 89 loads (54.15 loads of choice, 7.58 loads 
of select, 5.26 loads of trim and 21.58 loads of ground beef).


   Feeder cattle market is pulling attention toward the nearby contracts as 
October feeders are up $0.15 at $140.47, November feeders are up $0.20 at 
$140.30 and January feeders are down $0.12 at $138.70. The market would like to 
rally confidently and throughout the entire complex but with the corn market 
rallying $0.02 to $0.04 per bushel, feeder cattle contracts are hesitant. With 
feed becoming an issue throughout the country it wouldn't be surprising to see 
more calves and feeders hitting the marketplace as early as next week to kick 
off the official start of the October fall run.


   The lean hog market doesn't know whether the market can support higher 
prices and is trading mixed into the afternoon. Pork cutout prices are sharply 
higher at midday which hopefully will trickle into the afternoon's prices and 
keep the same trend throughout the week. If Thursday's export report is 
fruitful the market has a stronger chance of rallying trader support again. 
October lean hogs are up $0.82 at $72.57, December lean hogs are down $0.45 at 
$63.97 and February lean hogs are down $0.67 at $68.80.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2020 is up $0.89 at $75.42, and the 
actual index for 9/24/2020 is up $0.83 at $74.53. Hog prices are unavailable on 
the National Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission problems. Pork 
cutouts total 157.34 loads with 144.41 loads of pork cuts and 12.92 loads of 
trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.72, $97.04.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com



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